The idea: Private equity
Investing in private companies, usually taking control, improving them and selling within a few years.
Learn it Who allocates the capital, from hedge funds to sovereign wealth, and how a fund is built and measured.
The ideas every number rests on: the time value of money, the three statements, and the asset classes capital moves between.
What a company is worth and how to show the work, from a single multiple to a full buyout model.
How a company changes hands: the process, the price, the paper that holds it together, and what happens after closing.
Risk, return and the code behind them: the statistics a quant desk runs on, the strategies built from it, and Python and SQL to do it yourself.
The workbooks, documents, notebooks and data the lessons use, ready to edit. Included with a Premieur membership.
An LP's checklist for diligencing a fund manager, from team, track record and process to operations, terms, ESG and references.
One private fund's calls, fees, distributions and NAV over 12 years, the J-curve, and DPI, RVPI, TVPI and net IRR each year.
Whole fund (European) and deal by deal (American) waterfalls with pref, catch up, carry and a capped clawback, compared side by side, with carry and IRR grids.
An LP program vintage by vintage: calls, distributions, NAV and unfunded against the target allocation, over and under commitment cases, and the steady state commitment.
A startup cap table from founding through Seed, Series A and Series B, with SAFE and note conversion, the option pool shuffle, dilution by round and a liquidation waterfall at several exit values.
A Series B underwritten from the fund side: metrics against the bar, round terms, reserves, bear, base and bull exits through the preference stack, MOIC, IRR, fund contribution and a one page memo.
A five year linked income statement, balance sheet and cash flow with a term loan, a revolver against a minimum cash balance, and grids of Year 5 cash and leverage by growth and margin.
Liquidity, leverage, efficiency and profitability ratios from two years of statements, and the three and five step DuPont.
NPV, IRR, MIRR, payback and an NPV profile for a cash flow schedule, plus annuity, loan and perpetuity sheets.
Price, Macaulay and modified duration, DV01 and convexity, and the estimated against the full price change for a yield shock.
A ten year office pro forma built tenant by tenant, from rent roll and lease rollovers to NOI, loan sizing, levered returns and sensitivity grids.
A value add apartment acquisition with a renovation business plan, sources and uses, an LP and GP promote waterfall, sales and rent comps, and a committee summary with pass or fail tests.
A greenfield toll road from financial close to handback: construction funding with IDC, 25 years of operations, debt sculpted to a DSCR under a gearing cap, DSRA and lock up, project and equity IRR.
An availability payment PPP: unitary charge with indexation and deductions, lifecycle costs, sculpted senior debt, shareholder loan and share capital, handback retention and the value for money test.
Debt sized by sculpting to a target DSCR against a mortgage style annuity, with the flat DSCR, principal schedule, debt capacity and the effect of the tail and a higher target.
A property loan by year: DSCR, debt yield and LTV, cash trap and default tests, rent, vacancy and rate stresses, maximum loan sizing and the refinance test.
CAPM cost of equity from peer betas unlevered and relevered by Hamada, after tax cost of debt two ways, market value weights, and WACC grids on beta, leverage and the risk free rate.
A five year unlevered free cash flow forecast from operating drivers, WACC from CAPM and relevered peer betas, terminal value by growth and exit multiple with the implied cross checks, the bridge to value per share and a football field.
Ten peers with treasury method dilution, LTM and NTM EV/Revenue, EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT and P/E, include flags and quartiles, the implied value per share range and a regression of EV/EBITDA on growth.
A full leveraged buyout on a worked example: sources and uses, a five tranche debt schedule with revolver, sweep and PIK, credit statistics, MOIC and IRR at exit in years 3, 5 and 7, the value creation bridge and sensitivity grids.
A one page anonymous teaser, then a confidential information memorandum outline saying what each section should hold.
An illustrative mutual non disclosure agreement for an M&A process, with drafting notes. Not legal advice.
An illustrative non binding LOI for a control acquisition, cash free and debt free with a working capital peg, plus a term summary. Not legal advice.
From the recommendation through thesis, risks, returns and sensitivities, the diligence EBITDA bridge, value creation, exit and approvals.
A buyside tracker of 72 requests across eight workstreams with owners, due dates, status, data room references, overdue flags and an aging of what is still outstanding.
Reported to management adjusted to diligence adjusted EBITDA, debt like items to adjusted net debt, the equity price bridge and a grid of price by entry multiple and diligence EBITDA.
The peg from a trailing average, enterprise to equity price on estimate and final statements with the escrow true up, the same deal on a locked box, and grids on ticker, timing and collar.
Governance and reporting, quick wins, value creation workstreams with owners and day 30, 60 and 100 milestones, KPIs and risks.
Ten deals with enterprise value rebuilt from offer terms, control premiums, stake and recency filters, the implied value range and a check of the premium paid against the present value of synergies.
A sponsor backed unitranche underwritten end to end: base and downside cases, pricing and lender yields, covenant headroom, recovery, debt capacity and a risk rating.
Eight quarters of leverage, coverage and liquidity tests with capped add backs, step downs, headroom, equity cures, a compliance certificate and a six borrower portfolio monitor.
Four asset mean variance with risk contributions and component VaR, minimum variance and tangency portfolios with weight and correlation grids, and parametric and historical VaR.
Price tables, simple and log returns, rolling volatility, monthly resampling and a fund against its benchmark, in pandas.
A moving average crossover end to end: lagged position, trading costs, Sharpe, maximum drawdown and the look ahead comparison.
A fund's excess returns on market, size, value and momentum: betas, alpha, t statistics, R squared and the attribution.
Parametric, historical and Monte Carlo VaR and ES for a three asset portfolio, ten day scaling and a Kupiec backtest.
A PostgreSQL schema for securities, prices, holdings, trades and FX, with sample rows and commented queries for returns, value, rankings and drawdowns.
Daily closes for three hypothetical tickers over the 252 trading days of 2024, the data the notebooks load.